Outpick blog
Markets
Macro, sectors, and themes that move the stocks we follow.
Macro
Inflation, rates, and policy, written for stock pickers.
Japan's Treasury dump and AI's power problem: two clocks on the US economy
America sold euros to buy yen while Japan sold Treasuries to defend its currency — and AI spending is racing a grid that takes eight years to plug in. Here's what the headlines miss.
Aug 23, 2026 · 15 min read
Inflation is not a five-month Middle East story
Everyone blames Middle East oil for inflation. The Fed’s scoreboard — PCE — has missed 2% for years. Here’s why debt, money supply, and fiscal dominance matter more than the napkin narrative.
Jul 25, 2026 · 11 min read
Sectors and themes
Gold miners, emerging markets, and other corners of the market doing something unusual.
Argentine equities: the quiet engine of our best trades
Argentine equity ADRs produced four of our best trades in three years. Here's the contrarian thesis, the names, and the lessons on sizing emerging-market trades.
Jun 3, 2026 · 8 min read
Why gold mining stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026
Gold mining stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026 by a wide margin. Here's the margin-expansion math behind it and the names we own to play it.
May 20, 2026 · 8 min read