Outpick blog
Investing education
How to value a business, size a portfolio, and read research without getting fooled by it.
Valuation
Intrinsic value, moats, and what a business is worth before you look at the price.
Free Cash Flow Stock Analysis for Long-Term Investors
Free cash flow stock analysis helps investors test earnings quality, reinvestment needs, valuation, and business durability before committing capital.
Oct 7, 2026 · 7 min read
How to Analyze Competitive Advantage in Stocks
Learn how to analyze competitive advantage using customer behavior, unit economics, reinvestment, and valuation for patient stock investors over headlines.
Oct 6, 2026 · 7 min read
How to Calculate Intrinsic Value for a Stock
Learn how to calculate intrinsic value using cash flows, multiples, and disciplined assumptions to judge a stock's margin of safety before buying shares.
Oct 5, 2026 · 7 min read
Portfolio construction
How many stocks to own, how much to put in each, and what the index is really holding.
S&P 500 concentration risk: what index investors are actually holding
A market-cap S&P 500 fund is more concentrated than its 500-stock label implies. What long-term investors should check before treating it as diversified.
Sep 23, 2026 · 8 min read
How many stocks should you hold to beat the market?
How many stocks should you hold to beat the market? The math says 15-25. Fewer and you take uncompensated risk. More and you become the index.
Mar 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Metrics and backtesting
Sharpe, alpha, beta, and how to tell a real backtest from a curve fit.
Sector Relative Performance: A Better Stock Lens
Learn how sector relative performance separates company execution from industry tailwinds, helping long-term investors judge stocks with more discipline.
Oct 4, 2026 · 7 min read
Walk-forward backtesting explained (and why naive backtests lie)
Walk-forward backtesting, explained. Why most backtests overfit, how walk-forward validation actually works, and how we use it to test the Outpick strategy honestly.
Jun 17, 2026 · 7 min read
Alpha vs beta: what active stock picking actually buys you
Alpha vs beta in stock picking, explained without equations. Beta is cheap and indexable. Alpha is rare. Here is how to tell which one you are paying for.
Apr 22, 2026 · 8 min read
Research process
Writing a thesis, reading someone else's, and knowing when to sell.
Investment Thesis Template for Stock Research
Use this investment thesis template to assess a business, price its risks, define what would change your mind, and make better stock decisions over time.
Oct 3, 2026 · 7 min read
Long Term Investing Requires a Written Thesis
Long term investing is not buy-and-forget. Build a portfolio around business quality, valuation, thesis discipline, and clearly defined risks over time.
Sep 29, 2026 · 8 min read
How to read a stock research thesis: what matters beyond the rating
How to read a stock research thesis as a falsifiable argument. Audit the claim, evidence, variant view, and invalidation — not the rating or target.
Sep 27, 2026 · 8 min read
Choosing a research service
What paid newsletters and memberships cost, and how to judge one before you pay.
Is a stock research membership worth it?
Is a stock research membership worth it? Who it is for, how it differs from newsletters and tips apps, and what to audit on the live book before you pay.
Sep 28, 2026 · 6 min read
Is paying for a stock picking service actually worth it? (the math)
The honest break-even math on paying for stock picks. When the fee earns its keep, when it doesn't, and how to calculate the alpha you actually need.
Mar 24, 2026 · 8 min read
How to evaluate a stock picking newsletter (a buyer's checklist)
A buyer's framework for evaluating any stock picking newsletter — what to demand, what to ignore, and the seven red flags long-term investors should walk away from.
Feb 11, 2026 · 8 min read