Outpick research
Research for investors who outgrew the index.
Notes on value investing, market cycles, and the trades behind our live portfolio. Written for people who want to know why a stock is in the book, without taking on stock research as a second job.
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How to value a business, size a portfolio, and read research without getting fooled by it.
What it takes to beat the S&P 500 as a long-term investor, and how our process tries to do it.
Company work, screens, and the signals we test before trusting them.
Latest
Building Concentrated Stock Portfolios Well
Building concentrated stock portfolios requires more than conviction. Learn how to size positions, test theses, and manage risk with discipline over time.
Read article →Stock Downside Risk Analysis Starts With the Business
Stock downside risk analysis is not a price target. Learn to test balance sheets, earnings power, valuation, and thesis-break conditions before you buy.
Oct 9, 2026 · 7 min read
How to Assess Profit Margins Before Buying Stocks
Learn how to assess profit margins with sector context, cash flow, and durability tests that help investors separate businesses from short-term gains.
Oct 8, 2026 · 7 min read
Free Cash Flow Stock Analysis for Long-Term Investors
Free cash flow stock analysis helps investors test earnings quality, reinvestment needs, valuation, and business durability before committing capital.
Oct 7, 2026 · 7 min read
Should You Average Down on a Losing Stock? A 5-Question Test
Should you average down on a losing stock? A 5-question test on thesis, position size, and opportunity cost before you buy more of a falling stock.
Oct 7, 2026 · 9 min read
What Percentage of Your Portfolio Should Be Individual Stocks?
How much of your portfolio should be individual stocks? A sizing framework: core vs. satellite, single-stock caps, fund overlap, and when to size up.
Oct 7, 2026 · 8 min read
How to Analyze Competitive Advantage in Stocks
Learn how to analyze competitive advantage using customer behavior, unit economics, reinvestment, and valuation for patient stock investors over headlines.
Oct 6, 2026 · 7 min read
Every article
- Building Concentrated Stock Portfolios WellPortfolio construction · Oct 10, 2026
- Stock Downside Risk Analysis Starts With the BusinessValuation · Oct 9, 2026
- How to Assess Profit Margins Before Buying StocksValuation · Oct 8, 2026
- Free Cash Flow Stock Analysis for Long-Term InvestorsValuation · Oct 7, 2026
- Should You Average Down on a Losing Stock? A 5-Question TestPosition sizing · Oct 7, 2026
- What Percentage of Your Portfolio Should Be Individual Stocks?Position sizing · Oct 7, 2026
- How to Analyze Competitive Advantage in StocksValuation · Oct 6, 2026
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value for a StockValuation · Oct 5, 2026
- Sector Relative Performance: A Better Stock LensMetrics and backtesting · Oct 4, 2026
- Investment Thesis Template for Stock ResearchResearch process · Oct 3, 2026
- Market Cycle Analysis for Stock InvestorsSignals and cycles · Oct 2, 2026
- Earnings Revision Investing and Better Stock WorkSignals and cycles · Oct 1, 2026
- Individual Stock Research That Still Holds UpCompany research · Sep 30, 2026
- Anthropic IPO valuation: a five-factor screen of the $2T prospectusCompany research · Sep 29, 2026
- Long Term Investing Requires a Written ThesisResearch process · Sep 29, 2026
- Value Investing Is More Than Buying Cheap StocksValuation · Sep 28, 2026
- Is a stock research membership worth it?Choosing a research service · Sep 28, 2026
- How to read a stock research thesis: what matters beyond the ratingResearch process · Sep 27, 2026
- What Good Stock Research Actually Looks LikeResearch process · Sep 27, 2026
- S&P 500 concentration risk: what index investors are actually holdingPortfolio construction · Sep 23, 2026
- When to sell a stock: thesis broken vs a temporary price dropResearch process · Sep 19, 2026
- Japan's Treasury dump and AI's power problem: two clocks on the US economyMacro · Aug 23, 2026
- Inflation is not a five-month Middle East storyMacro · Jul 25, 2026
- What the first 100 days of a live portfolio actually feel likeLive portfolio · Jul 21, 2026
- Why we publish one stock pick every two weeksHow Outpick works · Jul 9, 2026
- Walk-forward backtesting explained (and why naive backtests lie)Metrics and backtesting · Jun 17, 2026
- Argentine equities: the quiet engine of our best tradesSectors and themes · Jun 3, 2026
- Why gold mining stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026Sectors and themes · May 20, 2026
- How to find 10x stocks (and why you only need a few)Finding winners · May 6, 2026
- Alpha vs beta: what active stock picking actually buys youMetrics and backtesting · Apr 22, 2026
- Sharpe ratio explained: what it is, why it matters, and what good looks likeMetrics and backtesting · Apr 8, 2026
- Is paying for a stock picking service actually worth it? (the math)Choosing a research service · Mar 24, 2026
- How many stocks should you hold to beat the market?Portfolio construction · Mar 10, 2026
- Small cap stocks that beat the S&P 500 (and how we find them)Finding winners · Feb 25, 2026
- How to evaluate a stock picking newsletter (a buyer's checklist)Choosing a research service · Feb 11, 2026
- How to beat the S&P 500 without becoming a day traderBeating the index · Jan 28, 2026
- How to outperform the S&P 500 with stock picks: a research-driven frameworkBeating the index · Jan 14, 2026