Outpick research
Research for investors who outgrew the index.
Notes on value investing, market cycles, and the trades behind our live portfolio — written for people who want intention and transparency, not a second job in stock research.
All articles
Inflation is not a five-month Middle East story
Everyone blames Middle East oil for inflation. The Fed’s scoreboard — PCE — has missed 2% for years. Here’s why debt, money supply, and fiscal dominance matter more than the napkin narrative.
Jul 25, 2026
What the first 100 days of a live portfolio actually feel like
Lessons from the first ~100 days of Outpick's live portfolio: early dispersion, why paper returns lie, and how to judge a young book without rewriting the strategy every week.
Jul 21, 2026
Why we publish one stock pick every two weeks
Why Outpick publishes one stock pick every two weeks: conviction over noise, a cadence you can actually follow, and how biweekly research compounds without becoming a second job.
Jul 9, 2026
Walk-forward backtesting explained (and why naive backtests lie)
Walk-forward backtesting, explained. Why most backtests overfit, how walk-forward validation actually works, and how we use it to test the Outpick strategy honestly.
Jun 17, 2026
Argentine equities: the quiet engine of our best trades
Argentine equity ADRs produced four of our best trades in three years. Here's the contrarian thesis, the names, and the lessons on sizing emerging-market trades.
Jun 3, 2026
Why gold mining stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026
Gold mining stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026 by a wide margin. Here's the margin-expansion math behind it and the names we own to play it.
May 20, 2026
How to find 10x stocks (and why you only need a few)
How to find 10x stocks for long term investors: the math of asymmetric upside, the patterns we screen for, and a real 5-bagger from our live portfolio.
May 6, 2026
Alpha vs beta: what active stock picking actually buys you
Alpha vs beta in stock picking, explained without equations. Beta is cheap and indexable. Alpha is rare. Here is how to tell which one you are paying for.
Apr 22, 2026
Sharpe ratio explained: what it is, why it matters, and what good looks like
What is the Sharpe ratio in investing? A plain-English explainer of the math, what counts as 'good', and why it's the single number every long-term investor should track.
Apr 8, 2026
Is paying for a stock picking service actually worth it? (the math)
The honest break-even math on paying for stock picks. When the fee earns its keep, when it doesn't, and how to calculate the alpha you actually need.
Mar 24, 2026
How many stocks should you hold to beat the market?
How many stocks should you hold to beat the market? The math says 15-25. Fewer and you take uncompensated risk. More and you become the index.
Mar 10, 2026
Small cap stocks that beat the S&P 500 (and how we find them)
Small cap stocks that beat the S&P 500 aren't rare — they're systematically overlooked. Here's the academic case, three real holdings, and how we screen.
Feb 25, 2026
How to evaluate a stock picking newsletter (a buyer's checklist)
A buyer's framework for evaluating any stock picking newsletter — what to demand, what to ignore, and the seven red flags long-term investors should walk away from.
Feb 11, 2026
How to beat the S&P 500 without becoming a day trader
Long-term equity research is the third path between VOO and day trading. Here's how a biweekly stock-picking cadence can beat the index without taking over your life.
Jan 28, 2026
How to outperform the S&P 500 with stock picks: a research-driven framework
A practical framework for outperforming the S&P 500 with stock picks: the math, the cadence, and the rules that separate alpha from luck.
Jan 14, 2026